Industry in 2012 will depend on consumer demand, pricing
Mexico's poultry production grew 3.3 percent and hit historic highs in 2011 after a 24 percent rise in prices between August and December 2011 and a decline in corn costs, according to Rabobank's Poultry Quarterly report.
Consumption of poultry grew 2 percent in Mexico in 2011, partially explained by a substitution effect from pig meat to poultry meat. Demand is expected to grow marginally in 2012, according to Rabobank. Mexico's current consumption is 30 kilograms per year. In the first quarter of 2012, Mexican poultry production increased 1.9 percent year over year. Production is expected to find some support in prices and in domestic demand, and annual production will have a marginal growth rate of 1 percent, reaching 2.8 million metric tons.
Import prices in 2011 grew 5.3 percent to fulfill domestic poultry demand, slower than 2010's 11.5 percent, according to Rabobank's report. In mid-2011, strong profits combined with increased domestic production to pressure industry profits. The average poultry-to-corn price ratio fell 31.9 percent in 2011 compared with 2010.
For the second quarter of 2012, Mexico's poultry industry will depend on sufficient consumer demand to support pricing, said Rabobank.